Wholesale Market Price Models

Using licensed PROSYM® software, La Capra has developed comprehensive market simulations of the northeastern United States (comprising New England, New York and PJM markets) and neighboring Canadian provinces (Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick).

The model reflects current market designs and up-to-date market rules and dynamics in forecasting regional hourly operation of generating resources and spot market prices for energy. We conduct studies for both near-term and long-term (10-20 years) perspectives of the power markets. We have also created customized models using PROSYM® for international markets, such as Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic for asset valuation purposes.

PROSYM® is an economic dispatch simulation software package, well-recognized in the energy industry (used under license from Henwood Energy Services, Inc.), that incorporates key market drivers as inputs to the model. The inputs include fuel prices, loads, unit additions and retirements, unit availability and inter- and intra-regional transmission constraints. The model is flexible enough to test for dispatch risk and delivery risk (i.e., the impact of transmission constraints) by varying these inputs.

These market price forecasts and results support many other La Capra consulting services, such as ratemaking, procurement, resource planning, and project development. The model results are used in testimony before state and federal regulatory agencies, as well as in advising energy market participants, financial institutions, and corporate management and boards on investment decisions.

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REPRESENTATIVE CLIENTS & PROJECTS

Revenue Forecast
La Capra assisted a Canadian independent power producer in a bid to purchase generating plants in New York by providing long-term forecasts of potential market revenues for the assets.

Power Production Simulation
On behalf of an owner of a new gas-fired combined cycle project in Puerto Rico, La Capra estimated the plant’s future capacity factor using PROSYM® simulations of unit dispatch within the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority electric system.

Multiple Power Market Studies
A large generation owner retained La Capra to perform studies of electricity markets in various locations in order to evaluate key market risks for its fleet of assets.